4. Would global warming worsen the 2023-2024 El Niño phenomenon?

Some climate scientists estimate that the 2023-2024 El Niño, exacerbated by the climate crisis, will likely raise average global temperatures beyond the record set in 2016, during the 2014-2016 El Niño event, and will record new records in 2024, they even believe that the 1.5 °C increase since pre-industrial times will be exceeded, albeit temporarily, which as we know is the goal of the Paris Agreement for the year 2100.

According to a publication by Rebecca Ann Hughes for Euronews, (April 2023), the planet will be facing more intense heat waves, the warm seasons will be longer and there will be stronger storms. The weather in Indonesia and Australia is likely to be much hotter and drier, which would increase the chances of more wildfires occurring. In India and South Africa the monsoons could be reduced, while East Africa could experience more intense rains and flooding. It is considered that El Niño could also increase hurricane activity in the Pacific area, so places like Hawaii would be at risk of facing tropical cyclones.

Richard Allan, a professor of climate science at the University of Reading in the United Kingdom, said: “It is too early to say how the current El Niño story will play out, but if it unleashes its full power in 2024, it is very likely that another one will be surpassed. global temperature record”, according to a publication by Joanna York for France24 (June 2023).