5. Which countries are most vulnerable to the El Niño phenomenon 2023-2024?

The NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States) indicates a probability of 56% when El Niño reaches its peak, generally during the boreal winter, there will be an intense event, and consequently the surface temperature of the eastern Pacific Ocean will increase at least 1.5°C above normal.

According to what was published by Lorena Guarino for Bloomberg in August 2023, El Niño events, generally associated with increased precipitation in the western part of South America, also affect the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and Asia. central. While it can cause severe droughts in areas of Australia, Indonesia, as well as in sectors of southern Asia, Central America and northern South America.

According to the Seasonal Forecast for Western South America August – October 2023, from the International Center for Research on the El Niño Phenomenon (CIIFEN), above-average rainfall was recorded on part of the coast of Venezuela, on the northern coast of the Ecuador, in the northern Amazon of Peru and part of central Chile. Below-normal rainfall occurred in parts of Venezuela and Colombia, in the Amazon region of Ecuador, and northern part of Peru.